1st Base Breakdown

Published: 05/02/2010 7:36 pm by KingLouieLouie76 in Fantasy Baseball Articles

TOP 5 FBX RANKED 1B :

Albert Pujols: St. Louis Cardinals

“Albert” (all he has to be referred now his by his first name) finished statistically overall with 7 HR, 19 RBI, .345 BA, .655 SLG, 1.085 OPS, .430 OBP, 13BB/14K. That is actually higher in most categories, except that he K’ed at a higher ratio. Obviously, Albert compensates for that in being at such a “uber” level all across the board that his strike-out totals do not detract whatsoever. He of course is probably not available in any leagues and naturally would cost a 1B of somewhat lesser value along with a front-line starter to be enticed from any team. Again, as it has been well documented on here is that Albert is the most complete player in our generation and do not see him being rivaled any time soon.

Miguel Cabrera: Detroit Tigers

Cabrera during the month of April actually produced at a higher clip than Albert with 5 HR, 25 RBI, .344 BA, .615 SLG, 1.042 OPS, .427 OBP, 13BB/12K. Cabrera only exceed Albert in the RBI and B/KK ratio, but is just slightly eclipsed in the other categories. Cabrera produced on par with where he customarily ranks every April and he continues to peak as the season progresses. Again, he’s not available in any league and would take somewhat similar to the cost of Albert in attempting to lure Cabrera away. He’s even younger than Pujols, so for all intents and purposes might have to up the ante by a remote amount. Again, Cabrera will continue to carry your fantasy team to newer heights.

Prince Fielder: Milwaukee Brewers

Fielder in April dropped to around 20th place statistically overall, however, his 2 HR, 9 RBI, .244 BA, .360 SLG, .741 OPS, .381 OBP, 12BB/24K should not alarm anyone since April traditionally is his worst month. He elevates it a notch whenever the temps heat up, so those stats are a complete mirage. He again should not be available in any league, but either he can be bought low by someone who is losing patience in him and is not familiar with his typical April struggles. Do not sell him low because it will come back to haunt you, especially since he’s still extremely young (not within his prime) and has plenty of upside and can potentially equal Albert in the power stats, but not in terms of OPS, OBP, and BA.

Ryan Howard: Philadelphia Phillies

Howard ranked in the ballpark of 12th place statistically overall with 4 HR, 17 RBI, .274 BA, .484 SLG, .794 OPS, .310 OPB, 5BB/20K. Those stats do not necessarily warrant a 5-year, $125 Mil contract extension, however, Howard usually starts the season off in every category around average-above average, but generally gets completely into rhythm by the 2nd half of the season and hoists the weight of the Phillies upon his shoulders in which they complete each and every recent season on a strong note. That again shall be the case since similar to other aforementioned 1B, he is not available but could be sold or bought at a mid-range value. Meaning, he can actually be worth 3 mid-tier players at three different positions. Howard is actually older than Pujols and in fact contrary to the others is already within his prime. Best to use full caution with him and personally he’s the most likely come season’s end to be ousted out of the top-5 by 1B slightly ranked just below him.

Mark Teixeira : New York Yankees

Teixeria overwhelmingly was not even within the top-25 statistically ranked overall 1B with 2 HR, 9 RBI, .136 BA, .259 SLG, .559 OPS, .300 OBP, 17BB/18K. Does that horrid start signify that you must all panic and immediately give-up on Teixeria? Absolutely not, however, he can actually be bought low by a manager who is in absolute panic mode. To go inside the numbers, Teixeria has for his entire career has compiled a .237 BA (compared to his lifetime .287 BA), .345 OBP (compared to his lifetime .377 OBP), .414 SLG (compared to his lifetime .539 SLG), and .760 OPS (compared to his lifetime .916 OPS) in April which is historically his worth month of the season. Teixeria generally begins to catch on fire by the 2nd week of May and there is never any turning back. He plays with immense avengence. Again, do not attempt to sell him, however, try to sway him away from anyone in your league that is not familiar with his annual April swoon and how he picks-up as the year progresses.

TOP 10 APRIL STATISTICALLY RANKED 1B :

Cabrera and Pujols were 1st and 2nd respectively and have already been covered. Here’s the eight remaining:

Paul Konkero: Chicago White Sox

Konerko picked-up exactly where he left off from his strong ‘09 finish with 11 HR, 21 RBI, .297 BA, .784 SLG, 1.197 OPS, .413 OBP, 15BB/6K. At 34 years-old, Konerko won’t outdistance any of the top-5 1B, but the savvy hitter usually thrives in April, then he dips in May, then from June-October he languishes. Konerko is very streaky and is ranked #18 among 1B by FBX, because it’s predictable what kind of stats he will generate each and every season. He’s one of those “Blue Chip” players, but never has been flashy, just will provide any fantasy team some stability. He’s currently available in roughly 25% of the leagues and again it’s..”you know what you’re going to get” label that applies to him. Although, some times it is refreshing to have some guaranteed decent output from 1B, but Konerko has never hit for high average, SLG, OPS, and OBP are generally not within the higher levels of his contemporaries at 1B. Again, he’s that reliable player, but about to go beyond his prime years and will soon be on a rapid decline.

Justin Morneau: Minnesota Twins

Does Morneau have what it takes to supersede any of the top-5 ranked? With 5 HR, 17 RBI, .347 BA, .640 SLG, 1.130 OPS, .490 OPB, 21BB/14K, some might respond with an empathic yes. Morneau is ranked #7 by FBX. It must not be overlooked that he averages 31 HR, 117 RBI, .282 BA, .505 SLG, .859 OPS, and .354 OBP, so he is somewhat playing over his head to start off ‘10. Do not buy, but perhaps sell high since Morneau is obviously fully capable, but more than likely should not keep up this staggering pace. At 29, he also will not outdistance any of the top-5, but should remain in the top-10 for at least the next 3-4 years and then potentially will go on the decline in his power numbers, but will keep his respectable BA. Again, he is not available in most leagues, but to reiterate could be a great trading tool, especially if there is a younger 1B with more of an upside waiting on your waiver wire.

Carlos Pena: Tampa Bay Rays

Pena has been all or nothing during his up/down 10-year career. He has carried that on with 5 HR, 22 RBI, .247 BA, .481 SLG, .859 OPS, .379 OBP, 17BB/21K. What has kept Pena afloat as the 5th statistically best 1B in April was his high RBI and SLG percentage. Otherwise, he would have been buried considerably lower. He’s available in around 7% of the leagues and is ranked now around #11 by FBX. Pena will remain around the top-15 and should not go any higher than #11 because he’s been prominently a dead pull hitter throughout his career with a career .247 BA and 512BB/997K ratio which is extremely unsettling. Perhaps its best to sell moderately low and buy low with caution. He can net some mid-tier younger position players and a top-3 tier starter at this time. Pena entered the ML touted as the next “Big Thing”, but it took awhile for him to blossom and he will never pose as a threat to continue at top-5 level and even his stats are inflated by 2 categories that factored in very heavily in his favor.

Kendry Morales: Los Angeles Angels

Morales can very well be the only statistically top-10 of April to surpass either Teixeria (but more than likely Howard) as the top-5 overall ranked 1B at FBX. FBX in fact currently ranks Morales who in April amassed 6 HR, 16 RBI, .295 BA, .523 SLG, .870 OPS, .347 OBP, 4BB/12K at #10, but he has the relative youth (26 years-old) and enormous upside to take a quantum leap over his peers. Morales just became a full-time 1B last year and seized the opportunity mighty well and he shall continue to flourish in that regard. He’s available in 5% of the leagues and could pay BIG dividends if someone is willing to trade him for a mid-upper tier starting pitcher. He is not one to be sold since again he has finally been given the chance to tap into his fullest potential and will not disappoint. He should average around 34 HR, 121 RBI, .301 BA and continue to generate solid all-around offensive stats. It is unfortunate he did not become a regular until last season because his stats could currently equal Prince Fielder and might be just as polished as Albert.

Adrian Gonzalez: San Diego Padres

Gonzalez currently ranked by FBX at #8 produced to the tune of 6 HR, 16 RBI, .288 BA, .563 SLG, .971 OPS, .408 OBP, 16BB/14K. Within 1-week from this being posted, Gonzalez, will be turning 28 years-old and despite that he will not advance into the top-5, he makes a case for leaping up to #6. Compared to those ahead of him, Gonzalez does everything balanced, but does not standout. Although, that is typically because the Padres have not surrounded him with adequate talent, but finally he is seeing better hitter’s pitches because of the emergence of several younger players in the their line-up. His power stats should drastically improve and he can continue to prove some detractors wrong. It has been rumored for quite some time that Gonzalez will soon be traded to a contender. If that happens, he is more than guaranteed to completely elevate himself into newer territories if/when the talent he is surrounded with can sustain consistent/solid production for a longer period of time.

Kevin Youkilis: Boston Red Sox

Youkilis is ranked #9 by FBX and similar to Gonzalez is produced in April right around where projected with 3 HR, 12 RBI, .270 BA, .472 SLG, .831 OPS, .359 OPB, 11BB/18K. Youkilis is available in around 2% of the leagues and should maintain #9 without advancing, but could somewhat drop since he (similar to Konerko and Pena) can be scripted to the extent that it is etched in stone he will hit around 25 HR, 96 RBI, .303 BA, .488 SLG, .880 OPS, .390 OBP. That is respectable, but will not garnish top-billing either. At 31, Youkilis has essentially entered his prime years, but don not expect him to all of a sudden surge and double his yearly output. Try to sell high for him now since another impatient owner who wants to rid a currently struggling 1B (or any other position player) and would jump at Youkilis overlooking his primed to be on the down-slope of his career.

Adam LaRoche: Arizona Diamondbacks

LaRoche is another, “you know what you’re going to get” type player who by FBX is ranked at #20. In fact, his 4 HR, 17 RBI, .296 BA, .563 SLG, .954 OPS, .390 OBP, 11BB/19K far exceeds his usual April stats. LaRoche rejected a long-term contract with the San Francisco Giants and settled for a 1-year deal w/the Dbacks this past offseason because he believed that could be a motivational tool in him to cash in on even a more lucrative contract. Would that ultimately pay off for him? His power stats are lower at the more pitching friendly, Chase Field, but he’s seeing more pitches with the likes of Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton surrounding him in the line-up. Will he keep this pace up? Honestly, he very well could prove those who doubted him, but also anticipate him to be dealt at the trade deadline or sooner when the Dbacks plan on recalling highly regarded Brandon Allen to become their every day 1B. He can be sold/bought relatively cheaply since LaRoche similar to Youkilis has never stood-out in any particular category, just is averagely rounded.

Joey Votto: Cincinnati Reds

Votto on FBX is currently sitting at #6 and paced himself in April with 4 HR, 12 RBI, .275 BA, .500 SLG, .904 OPS, .404 OBP, 18BB/22K. Quite frankly, see Kendry Morales since Votto at 26 (will be 27 on 9/10) is also a late bloomer and also has the distinct chance of breaking into the top-5. It is purely based on who does better, Morales or Votto? Only time can answer that question since both are extremely close, but yet in many different ways. Votto projects out to be the next Morneau as a 1B who hits for high average and puts up decent power stats, but again won’t completely break-out and suddenly lead the leagues in any major offensive category. Although, Votto can gradually add more bulk and begin to drive the ball… Votto is available in 3% of the leagues and should average 30 HRs, 98 RBI, .320 BA, and be evenly distributed across the board in other categories. He can be also moderately bought, but wouldn’t sell him since he can only continue to elevate his game further.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN :

James Loney: Los Angeles Dodgers (FBX #16) Available in 34%

Aubrey Huff: San Francisco Giants (FBX #27) Available in 91%

Billy Butler: Kansas City Royals (FBX #17) Available in 10%

Adam Dunn: Washington Nationals (FBX #?) Available in 8%

Derrek Lee: Chicago Cubs (FBX #21) Available in 6%

KEEP TRACK OF :

Brandon Allen: Arizona Diamondbacks

Ike Davis: New York Mets

Daric Barton: Oakland Athletics

Justin Smoak: Texas Rangers

Matt LaPorta: Cleveland Indians

Tomorrow, 2B will be covered.

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2 Comments so far

  1. frankiephilly May 4th, 2010 11:43 pm

    I have Kevin Youkilis higher but i like these ranks alot. Thanks for the info Louie! Do you think Justin Morneau can creep into the top 5?

  2. smitty May 5th, 2010 12:54 am

    Awesome list and analysis!

    The only change I make is this one to the top five:

    1. Albert Pujols

    2. Ryan Howard

    3. Prince Fielder

    4. Miguel Cabrera

    5. Mark Teixeira

    That’s not a big change, so honestly this is a fantastic set of rankings.

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