Fantasy Baseball Xtreme

Players I Should Have Ranked

Ben Brojakowski — Mon, 14 May 2012 14:04:57 +0000

In my last post I mentioned some of this season’s biggest surprises. Today I’m going to list some of the this season’s top performers that didn’t make any of my original lists. Each player will be accompanied by his season stats and a ranking from 1 to 10 (1 being the least and 10 being the most) of how much I trust them.

Carlos Beltran

– .284 – 24R – 10HR – 27RBI – 5SB – 9

Bryan LaHair

– .384 – 14R – 8HR – 18RBI – 0SB – 7

Lance Lynn

– 6W – 0L – 37K – 1.40ERA – 0.85WHIP – 6

Johnny Cueto

– 4W – 0L – 31k – 1.12ERA – 0.97WHIP – 5

David Wright

– .376 – 20R – 3HR – 18RBI – 3SB – 3

Edwin Encarnacion

– .269 – 18R – 10HR – 26RBI – 4SB – 7

Rafael Furcal

– .361 – 23R – 2HR – 15RBI – 6SB – 6

Jason Vargas

– 4W – 2L – 38K – 2.79ERA – 0.97WHIP – 5

Mike Aviles

– .266 – 21R – 5HR – 19RBI – 4SB – 3

Adam Jones

– .289 – 23R – 8HR – 17RBI – 5SB – 5

David Freese

– .388 – 23R – 5HR – 15RBI – 1SB – 6

Gio Gonzalez

– 3W – 1L – 41K – 1.72ERA – 0.90WHIP – 7

Derek Jeter

– .312 – 15R – 7HR – 26RBI – 0SB – 5

Kyle Lohse

– 5W – 1L – 27K – 2.08ERA – 1.02WHIP – 9

David Ortiz

– .359 – 21R – 7HR – 23RBI – 0SB – 6

Jake Peavy

– 4W – 1L – 44K – 1.89ERA – 0.80WHIP – 9

Jose Altuve

– .333 – 19R – 2HR – 13RBI – 5SB – 2

Jason Kipnis

– .265 – 19R – 5HR – 20RBI – 6SB – 4

Adam Dunn

– .243 – 19R – 10HR – 25RBI – 0SB – 6

Brandon Morrow

– 4W – 1L – 39K – 2.27ERA – 0.97WHIP – 7

I’m also a huge fan of Bryce Harper and Will Middlebrooks. Neither made my original rankings and neither of them have had enough bats to qualify for this article but if you have an empty roster spot I wouldn’t hesitate to pick one of these players up.

April Wrap-Up

Ben Brojakowski — Sun, 06 May 2012 20:53:53 +0000

We’re a month into the 2012 season and a lot has happened. There have been walk-offs, injuries, surprises and even some high profile call-ups from the minors. Now that May has arrived it’s time to take a look back at my pre-season rankings, look ahead at what to expect and analyze some of the surprise performers of baseball’s first month.

The Good:I was right about Matt Kemp. The superstar outfielder is off to a smoking hot start to begin the season. In 25 games played he has 12 HRs. I can’t even believe I typed that. 12 HRs! No one in the majors has more than 9. He’s also batting .411 with 25 RBIs (that means he’s on pace for 162). I could complain that he only has 2 steals but I won’t.

The Bad: I ranked Albert Pujols third amongst all first basemen. I wrote that I felt bad ranking him so low but he should have been left off the list. As of this writing, he’s batting .208 with no HRs and only 5 RBIs. I know it’s only a matter of time until he breaks out of this slump but for right now I’m sorry for owners that have him.

The Pleasant Surprise: Lance Lynn and Joe Saunders. Lynn has been nothing short of dominant with his 5-0 record in April. He boasts a 1.60 ERA with a 0.77 WHIP. Saunders record isn’t quite as good. He’s 2-1 with a 1.24 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. Other pitchers have gotten off to hot starts this season but I have the most faith in these two.

The Good: I was right about Josh Hamilton being high-risk/high-reward. He’s off to a Matt Kemp-like start. He’s batting .395 with 25 RBIs and 9 HRs. Incredible. I may have been too low on my rankings but he’s hurt already. That is a big concern for Hamilton owners. He’s currently listed as day-to-day but I can imagine a trip to the DL in the near future.

The Bad: I misled you all when I ranked Ben Zobrist as a top second basemen and outfielder. His stats are not good. The silver lining for Zobrist owners is that he has been playing better in the last few games. I would use him as trade bait.

The Unpleasant Surprise: Justin Verlander’s win total. The reigning AL CY Young winner only has two wins in his six starts this season. He’s pitching very well with a 2.38 ERA, 42 Ks and a 0.86 WHIP but a mix of bad luck, poor 9th innings and bullpen collapses have hurt his record. I don’t know if I like seeing him pitch so many innings this early. I see post-All Star break struggles almost as clearly as I see Hamilton’s DL stint.

The Big Surprise: Mike Trout and Bryce Harper have been called up in April. It remains to be seen how long they will stay with their respective teams and its too early to predict their success but they’re going to be fun to watch.

Early Season Injuries

Ben Brojakowski — Sat, 28 Apr 2012 16:46:44 +0000

The early-season injury bug has come out in full force to affect some major fantasy players so far. Let’s take a look at some of major hitters and who you can pick up as replacements.

The player I rated the highest to land on the DL is Jacoby Ellsbury. He was struggling to start the season but his absence surely hurts the owners that used a first or second round pick on him. He is expected to return in late May or early June but I don’t believe it. As a Red Sox fan, I’ve seen their medical staff screw up too many injury diagnoses to trust that. Trading him to someone that believes he’ll be back soon is a high risk-high reward option right now.

Lance Berkman is another major injury to occur so far. His teammate Jon Jay is day-to-day right now but may soon land on the DL. Pitcher Chris Carpenter but DLed starters will be another post.

Berkman is due back sometime in May. He didn’t find his power yet but was batting .348 with a .500 OBP. His multiple-position eligibility make him a huge loss for many owners.

Perhaps the biggest fantasy loss so far this season has been DiamondBacks outfielder Chris Young. He should be back soon and both the DiamondBacks and his fantasy owners need him to return soon. Before injuring his shoulder he was batting .410 with 5 HRs and 13 RBIs. I suggest trying to trade for him. Inexperienced fantasy owners may sell low if they’re unsure of his injury or worried about his production when he returns.

Let’s take a look at some players that are available in many leagues that you should take a chance on as replacements:

Mike Aviles – The Red Sox middle infielder is batting .328 with 4 HRs, 14 runs and 13 RBIs.

Nolan Reimold – The Orioles’ outfielder is batting a very impressive .370. He also added 5 HRs and 10 RBIs.

Bryan LaHair – He’s batting .364 with 4 HRs, 11 RBIs and 7 runs. The Cubs really need a bat like this in the middle of their lineup.

Alejandro De Aza, Luke Scott and Jordan Schafer are popular pick-ups right now and hey deserve consideration for a short-term fix. Aviles, Reimold and LaHair are players I believe you can hang on to.

Other notable players on the DL are Jason Bay, Mike Morse, Lorenzo Cain and Brett Gardner.

Breaking: Carl Crawford shut down from baseball activities with a UCL sprain. Injuries like this are why I don’t trust the Red Sox medical staff with Jacoby Ellsbury.

More News:According to the MLB Twitter account, Nationals’ 3rd Baseman Ryan Zimmerman will be placed on the DL and top prospect Bryce Harper will make his debut.

Taking A Closer Look at Closers

Ben Brojakowski — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 14:55:58 +0000

A few weeks ago I ranked my top 10 fantasy closers. You can read about them here and here. A lot has changed since I wrote those columns though.

This season has been a year full of injuries for closers and it’s time to look at who may be creeping onto the list.

Drew Storen – Washington Nationals

I listed Storen as my #5 overall closer but he hasn’t thrown a pitch in 2012. He had a minor elbow surgery last week and is expected to return before the All Star break.

Without their young righty, the Nationals have turned to Brad Lidge and Henry Rodriguez to close out their victories. Both have been effective and have neither has pulled too far ahead in the race to be named closer. Only 1/3 of an inning separates their total innings this season although Rodriguez has appeared in one more game.

Currently, Rodriguez leads the team with three saves while Lidge has only two. Rodriguez has only given up one hit, four walks and struck out nine hitters. He still has not given up a run.

Lidge’s stats are very good but he trails Rodriguez in most statistical categories. The Nationals seem to like him, though, because he is still getting save opportunities. I expect him to lose the closer title to Rodriguez sooner rather than later.

Brian Wilson – San Francisco Giants

There is no need to Fear the Beard this season because Wilson will miss the 2012 season after he undergoes Tommy John surgery.

The Giants will use the Closer By Committee approach with Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla and Jeremy Affeldt but I believe the job will soon be Casilla’s. Manager Bruce Bochy recently said that Casilla will receive the “lion’s share” of save opportunities.

Casilla converted his first save opportunity while only allowing one single. It should be interesting to see if he succeeds or crumbles under the pressure of replacing the beard.

Andrew Bailey – Boston Red Sox

This one is a little easier to understand. Bailey is on the 60-day DL and Bobby Valentine quickly named Alfredo Aceves the new closer. Aceves has been shaky and has allowed three runs in his three innings pitched this season. Rumors continue to swirl about Daniel Bard returning to the bullpen to close for the Sox but rumors always swirl in Boston and I don’t take them seriously. It is safe to say that Mark Melancon will not challenge Aceves for his role.

Kyle Farnsworth – Tampa Bay Ray

On April 6, Farnsworth was given a timetable of 4-6 weeks to return to the mound but the Rays aren’t missing a beat without him.Fernando Rodney has stepped in and closed 4 games for the Rays. He hasn’t allowed a hit yet and has only walked one batter with three strikeouts.

Ryan Madson – Cincinnati Reds

Madson is the last closer I’ll mention tonight and he ranked 6th on my preseason closer list. He is currently on the 60-day DL list and has absolutely no fantasy value in standard leagues.

Reds’ manager Dusty Baker put Sean Marshall in charge of closing games for the NL Central contenders. Marshall has the team’s only save this season but he hasn’t looked great. He has only given up one run but has allowed six baserunners in 3.1 innings so far.

Marshall has time to settle into his new role and will keep it as long as he keeps runners from scoring but I’m sure Reds fans can do without seeing two baserunners every 9th inning. I’ll be back soon with injury updates to some of the top hitters in the majors and the best free agent options available.

What We Learned Week One

Ben Brojakowski — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 15:03:26 +0000

Well everyone, baseball is officially underway. Of course the start of baseball season means the start of overreactions. Powerhouse teams like the Red Sox, Yankees and Braves are off to slow starts while teams like the Royals and Mets began 2012 with series wins. Before anyone rushes to the waiver wire or dumps a star player lets take a closer look at the season so far.

The Good

Ian Kinsler – Kinsler is off to a hot start after hitting a HR and a double in his season debut. He just hit his 2nd HR (a 3-run shot to left field) as I’m typing this. Kinsler hasn’t agreed to a new contract with the Rangers yet so expect him to earn his paycheck this season.

The Detroit Tigers – Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera started this season the way Bobby Valentine and the rest of the AL managers were afraid of. The duo bashed two HRs each in a 10-0 rout of the BoSox the day after Justin Verlander struck out 7 batters in 8 scoreless innings. Austin Jackson is also off to a hot start with a .571 average but don’t expect that to last too long.

Pitching! – This may be the year of the pitcher again. There have been a lot of great starts so far but here are the players you should believe in (in no particular order):

Justin Verlander

John Lester

Tommy Hanson

Ivan Nova

Jeremy Hellicksen

Roy Halladay

Jered Weaver

Stephen Strasburg

Ian Kennedy

Zach Greinke

The Bad

Albert Pujols – The Pujols experiment in LA hasn’t gone so well. He’s batting .214 with 3 walks through 4 games. He added 1 run, 1 RBI and hasn’t gone deep yet. A lot of fantasy owners used a very early pick on Pujols and I hope no one is rushing to trade him. He has 158 more games to prove that he can be just as dominant in the AL as he was in the NL.

Boston Red Sox – It kills me to write this but other than John Lester I haven’t seen much to like. I have about the same level of concern for most Sox as I do Pujols but I have to admit that Ellsbury scares me a lot. He does not look confident at the plate and I expected more from him after a near-MVP season.

The Atlanta Braves – The 0-4 Braves should provide home fans with barf bags when they return to Atlanta on Friday (the 13th). They’ve increased their run total by one run each game but they’ve only scored 10 runs in their first four games. The only players batting over .300 so far are pitcher Brandon Beachy (.500 – 1 hit) and pinch hitter Eric Hinske (.333 – 1 hit). Martin Prado (.267) and Freddie Freeman (.250) lead the everyday players with in batting average and hits (4 each).

The Surprises

Carlos Pena – Pena made a statement with a grand slam off CC Sabathia and a walk off wall-scraping single off Mariano Rivera in his return to Tampa Bay. He’s batting .500 with 6 hits and 2 HRs but I don’t expect this hot start to continue. I’ll never question his power but I expect that batting average to come down fast.

Ichiro Suzuki – It hasn’t taken Ichiro very long to adapt to his new role as the Mariners’ 3-hitter. He’s hitting .409 but only has 3 RBIs. The team only has 9 extra base hits this season and only three of them are from the #1 & 2 hitters. There is a lot of potential here if some runners can get in scoring position for him.

Fantasy Season Preview 2012 (Batters)

Ben Brojakowski — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 15:29:55 +0000

Well, everyone, my rankings are done and spring training is over. The regular season even started a week ago but not many people saw. This entry is going to be about what we learned, what changed and some predictions for 2012.

Since I started my rankings with first base I think it’s fair that I start there. What I learned during spring training is that Eric Hosmer was ranked too low. I gave him a top 10 spot but he looks more like a top 5 player. I’m not willing to move him into the A-Gon/Pujols/Votto range but his .416 average, 4 steals, 29 RBIs and 5 round-trippers in 77 at-bats was much more than what I was expecting.

I ranked Miguel Cabrera first in my 1st and 3rd basemen ranking and predict he will be a top 5 fantasy pick overall. I didn’t get a #1 pick in any of my leagues this year, but if I did I would have used my pick on Miggy. He suffered an injury at 3rd earlier in spring training but he returned on Mar 30 and promptly hit two doubles. I’m much less worried about that eye injury now.

I ranked Dan Uggla 6th in my 2nd base rankings. I still feel confident about that but Uggla looks like he is in the best shape of his life. He hit 6 HRs this spring and trails his teammate Freddie Freeman by one HR for the NL lead.

When I ranked Brett Lawrie I mentioned that I thought he had tremendous ability but his inexperience is what affected his low rank. He had some groin issues this spring which may scare some owners but I think his offensive stats are much more important. He only stepped to the plate 39 times this spring but he made the most of his appearances. He batted .538 with nine extra base hits. He didn’t hit a HR yet but I’m sure his power will return when he’s totally healthy.

Another quick first/third base note is that Michael Young is batting .423 this spring. He’s tied for 2nd in the majors.

I ranked Michael Bourn as my #15 outfielder and I regret it. He is an elite base stealer but I think he’s a one-trick pony. I’m dropping him out of my top 20. I don’t think Delmon Young is Bourn’s replacement on the list but his .383 average, 6 HRs and 21 RBIs caught my eye.

Predictions
1. Justin Upton is going to be really good. Maybe not the top fantasy outfielder but close and he’s my NL MVP choice. He didn’t have a great spring but I’m not worried.

2. The Royals are going to go as far as their offense takes them. I already mentioned Eric Hosmer but Lorenzo Cain has been incredible this spring and I’m high on Moustakas. Pitching and injuries (Soria and Perez) will be their downfall

3. Dee Gordon should have been ranked on my shortstop list. He should be on the list and Erick Aybar can move up while Hardy and Ramirez can compete for the 10 spot.

4. Yoenis Cespedes will be pretty good this year. Not great but he’ll have some fantasy value. The A’s will not be great and Cespedes will be under the radar because of them.

5. The Phillies will be the opposite of the Royals. Their pitching will carry them. Pence will be great while Victorino and Rollins try to step their games up to keep the Phils out of the loss column.

Top 15 Fantasy Starting Pitchers 2012: Part 3

Ben Brojakowski — Sat, 31 Mar 2012 14:40:14 +0000

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers 2012

So the 2012 MLB season has officially started even though most people missed it. Dustin Ackley had an incredible opening game and Yoenis Cespedes hit his first career MLB home run. My prediction about Felix Hernandez not getting wins looks good and Bartolo Colon was effective but pitched against one of the worst offenses in the majors.

Now that I wrapped up the short Japan series let’s get into the top 5 for my last position ranking of the preseason.

5. Jered Weaver – Los Angeles Angels

Jered Weaver was virtually unhittable at the beginning of his 2011 campaign. He finished 2nd in Cy Young voting but his 18-8 record was disappointing to some people after his incredible start.

Weaver got off to a 6-0 start but lost his next 4 and didn’t win a game in the month of May. Then he got hot again in June and ran his record to 14-4 before losing 3 of his next 4 starts.

Weaver had nearly 200 Ks, a 1.01 WHIP and an ERA under 2.5 but he’s too streaky to be ranked higher. This ranking might even be generous.

4. Cliff Lee – Philadelphia Phillies

Cliff Lee is the #2 arm in the loaded Phillies rotation. I ranked Cole Hamels a few days ago and I’m not even done ranking Phillies starters yet.

Lee is a strike-throwing machine. His high K total and incredibly low walk-rate make him a control freak (Get it? He has control of his pitches… I know its lame) but that is the exact type of pitcher you want in fantasy baseball. Lee’s value increases in leagues with K/9 and Walk total categories.

3. Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers

The reigning AL Cy Young and MVP winner is probably ranked 1st on a lot of people’s starters list. Not mine.

Many people are prisoners of the moment and we’re living in a moment when starting pitchers can be named MVP. He can do it again but the odds are stacked very high against him and I see some regression in his stats.

Verlander is coming off a season where he threw hundreds more pitches than he is used to and is under more pressure than any starter in the league. He will be very, very good but let’s be realistic about him.

2. Roy Halladay – Philadelphia Phillies

Halladay is the second Phillies starter in the top 5 and 3rd in the top 10 (top 6 to be exact). He’s also a two-time Cy Young winner and finished 2nd in the 2011 NL Cy Young voting.

Halladay is an even bigger control freak than his teammate Cliff Lee. In 2011 he had a few less Ks than Lee but also walked fewer batters. He is a fantasy stud and is my #1 pitcher in leagues with K/9 and walk categories.

1. Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers

I may be a year early on this prediction but I see nothing but great things coming from Clayton Kershaw’s Dodgers with Magic Johnson as their new owner.

Those great things will happen when the Dodgers add a few more pieces to their roster but I can think of a lot of hitters that would rather play with Kershaw than bat against him.

The 2011 NL Cy Young winner went 21-5 with a 2.28 ERA and 248 Ks. He also walked 54 batters for an incredible WHIP of 0.97.

I would never bet on a pitcher to win the MVP award but if I had to bet on the starter that I think will have the most MVP votes at the end of 2012 I would bet heavily on Kershaw.

Part 1, Part 2

Top 15 Fantasy Starting Pitchers 2012: Part 2

Ben Brojakowski — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 14:11:14 +0000

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers 2012

No time to waste. Let’s jump into the top 10:

10. David Price – Tampa Bay Rays

ESPN has an interesting note about Price. In 2010 he was 19-6 and in 2011 he was 12-13 although he pitched better than his previous season.

That’s a really weird stat but it isn’t one that scares me away from Price. If he continues to get better, like he has the last two seasons, he will have nearly 220 Ks and an ERA under 3.5. If you’re lucky enough to get a pitcher with those numbers, the wins will only be a bonus.

9. Dan Haren – Los Angeles Angels

Haren breaks into the top 10 because I believe he’ll avoid his annual post All Star break collapse.

The addition of Albert Pujols should boost his wins because of some additional run support. His outstanding control and high strikeout ability will keep his Ks up and his WHIP down. He has to play against the Texas offense more than I like but that is a small price for Haren’s ability.

8. Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners

King Felix is lower than usual on my list. I don’t worry about his ability but I worry about his wins.

I know that I just wrote about Price having great numbers and assuming wins will follow but I don’t have that same feeling about Hernandez.

The difference is that Price is a very good pitcher on a good team. Felix is a great pitcher on a team that finished dead last in batting average and runs scored.

7. Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants

When I wrote about Matt Cain I mentioned the Giants poor hitting. In 2011, they finished 29th in runs scored and 28th in team batting average.

Lincecum gets the Felix-treatment here. The two-time Cy Young winner has been outstanding in the past but doesn’t pile up wins like he should. I also never had a lot of faith in his ability long-term.

I believe he can still be statistically great this season but I anticipate some regression in his game coming very soon. I hope, for the sake of fantasy owners, it isn’t this season.

6. Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies

Cole Hamels in a contract year is music to my fantasy ears. The Phillies lefty should be out to prove he deserves Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay money before he competes for free agency supremacy with Matt Cain and Zack Greinke.

Phillies fans love Hamels for his playoff performance in 2008 but he seems to become the forgotten man in a rotation that features two Cy Young winners.

I don’t believe that Hamels will want to be the forgotten man in free agency during the offseason so expect him to up his game this season.

Part 1 , Part 3 Part 3

Top 15 Starting Pitchers 2012: Part 1

Ben Brojakowski — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 13:00:41 +0000

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers 2012

Building a great rotation is a major part of fantasy baseball. I began these rankings with hitters because so many positions need to be filled but in most standard leagues pitching is equally important. Since the season is rapidly approaching I’m going to jump right into the important part of this article.

15. CJ Wilson – Los Angeles Angels

Wilson is moving from the two-time defending AL World Series participant Texas Rangers to the division rival Angels and I think fantasy owners should be really excited about it.

Wilson had a good 2011 as the Rangers’ top pitcher but I think he’s primed for a great 2012 as a #3 starter. Wilson will likely be the team’s third starter behind Jered Weaver and Dan Haren.

With less pressure, I anticipate increased wins and similar strikeout numbers but pitching against his former team’s potent offense may have a negative effect on his ERA and WHIP.

14. Jon Lester – Boston Red Sox

I imagine that Lester is thrilled to be named Boston’s opening day starter but I’m not as excited about him.

Lester is an incredible pitcher and has the ability to be a top 10 (maybe top 5) pitcher in the majors. I’m concerned about the stress around him though.

Being named the opening day starter right after his, and the team’s, epic collapse in 2011 and the new atmosphere created by Bobby Valentine puts a lot of question marks around Beantown.

I think he’s too good to have a “bad” season but I consider him moderate-risk, high reward.

13. Matt Cain – San Francisco Giants

Matt Cain is one of the most under-appreciated pitchers in the majors. He’s an innings-eating righty with above-average control and a big home outfield behind him.

Cain’s value is his ability to rack up innings (for high minimum innings leagues) and keep balls inside the park. His control keeps his WHIP down and he has good strikeout ability.

The reason Cain is so far down on the list is because of his team’s offense leading to his low win total. The Giants’ are a notoriously free-swinging team that won the 2010 series on the backs of Cain and Tim Lincecum. Too many of his starts are decided by a relief pitcher in late innings.

12. Stephen Strasburg – Washington Nationals

The young fireballer only made 5 MLB starts in 2011 after recovering from Tommy John surgery and was limited to 24 innings but he impressed with 24 Ks.

I’m very high on the Nationals this season and Strasburg is a major reason why. His innings might be limited but I have a good feeling that he’ll maximize his minutes on the mound.

I expect a moderate win total, low ERA and very high strikeouts from him this year. My concern is still his innings limit. If Strasburg is your #1 pitcher you’ll need to draft another soon.

11. CC Sabathia – New York Yankees

Sabathia has the tools to be a fantasy monster but I have some concerns about his 2012 campaign.

CC is a dominant lefty with great strikeout ability but I’m worried that his years of eating innings will catch up to him. He also plays in the hitter-dominant AL in a division full of small ballparks.

He’s clearly the top pitcher on a great offensive team so I don’t have too many concerns with his win total or Ks but his ERA, WHIP & total innings might hurt his fantasy value.

Part 2 , Part 3

Top 10 Fantasy Closers 2012: Part 2

Ben Brojakowski — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 02:09:18 +0000

Fantasy Baseball Closers 2012

Before I get into the top 5 closers I wanted to mention an injury to an All Star closer. Joakim Soria has elected to undergo Tommy John surgery and will likely miss 2012. This is bad news for the Royals who will be without Salvador Perez for about three months.

Let’s get into the top 5:

5. Drew Storen – Washington Nationals

Storen was very successful with the Nationals in 2011. He had 43 saves and 6 wins with a 2.75 ERA.

The Nationals are an improving team and Storen will be a major part of their success. If he wants to be higher in the rankings he’ll have to boost his strikeout total.

4. John Axford – Milwaukee Brewers

I’m not sure Axford can repeat his 46 saves from 2011 but I have a lot of faith in him. I think 40 is an accurate prediction for his save total this season but he gets a better ranking than Storen because of his strikeout ability.

3. Mariano Rivera – New York Yankees

When will this guy stop being good? I hope, as a Red Sox fan, that its really soon but I don’t think so.

I expect 40 saves and 60 Ks out of Rivera this season. That seems pretty average, by Rivera’s and current closer standards, but he earned a top 3 ranking because he is so consistent. Someone I already mentioned on this list or in Part 1 may have a better season but Rivera is such a safe and consistent option that I recommend him over someone who doesn’t have as great a reputation.

2. Jonathan Papelbon – Philadelphia Phillies

Papelbon gets a change of scenery and a move to the NL.

His save total and strikeouts shouldn’t be a concern but he’s susceptible to putting runners on base and allowing some to score.

He has great ability but Phillies phans will realize that Papelbon is a bit of a roller coaster to watch.

1. Craig Kimbrel – Atlanta Braves

In many of my past articles I’ve ranked players lower because of inexperience. Kimbrel is the exception. The reason? In 2011, he had an astounding 14.84 K/9 ratio. ESPN fantasy analysts expect that number to increase too.

The NL ROY dominated hitters in 2011 with 46 saves, 127 strikeouts, 4 wins and a 2.10 ERA.He only walked 32 batters as well.

He’s set up for regression but in such a valuable fantasy position I wouldn’t hesitate to draft him.

Part 1