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Would you take Troy Tulowitzki #1 overall?
4 months ago
Bones
Vancouver, WA.
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January 24, 2011
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I only ask, because in that Lindy's magazine, they have him ranked as the #1 overall player on their top 10 list for the season.  He's followed by:

2)  Matt Kemp

3)  Albert Pujols

4)  Jose Bautista

5)  Jacoby Ellsbury

6)  Adrian Gonzalez

7)  Robinson Cano

8)  Miguel Cabrera

9)  Evan Longoria

10) Roy Halladay

Anyways, back to Tulo…I get the strategy, it's all about position scarcity.  So you get the #1 overall shortstop, who will get you the most Home Runs and RBI at the position, plus over 80 runs scored and an over .300 BA.

But is that enough to pass on Albert, Bautista, Kemp, Gonzo, and Cabrera?  You have Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez probably available in the 2nd round.  Rising stars like Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Elvis Andrus a few rounds after that.  Some I can see waiting on Jimmy Rollins for a later round. 

It's an interesting idea…..oh, and by the way, Tulo is hitting his prime (and THE prime years for baseball players) as he enters his age 27 season.

4 months ago
bobellis75
Lee's Summit MO
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I'd consider it due to the position he plays….but I think if I had the #1 I'd personally have to go with Kemp, most likely.

4 months ago
SwishesWishes
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The position matters a lot to me. My 1-2-3 this year is Tulo, Longoria, Kemp.  I like the idea of having Tulo at SS and a great sleeper at first base which is really deep this year.

 

consider this, would you rather have

 

Tulo and Hosmer/Dunn/Morales (1B)

or

a Ryan Theriot type and Pujols

 

I just think lack of depth at SS is big part of Tulos value

 

other decent first base sleepers – http://bit.ly/zq1iNe

4 months ago
bobellis75
Lee's Summit MO
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I am also a believer in position scarcity, and I have a formula for standard fantasy baseball as well as scoresheet leagues (which is a way to more or less rate guys on a "real life" scale).  I get where you're coming from.  Although I followed your link and am not sure I'd call some of those guys "sleepers" but maybe guys you can get a little later in the draft…I don't think anyone is necessarily overlooking guys like Hosmer, Ike, etc. though.

That said, if you take Pujols in round 1, it doesn't necessarily mean you're going to end up with Ryan Theriot at SS.

4 months ago
bobellis75
Lee's Summit MO
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Quick follow up - 

 

I get the point you're making Swish (and glad to have you aboard for a little discussion) but if you have the first round pick in say a 10 team league….what's to say you can't steal a guy like Hanley at the end of round 2 (he might slip that far, and still qualifies at SS) or wait a little longer and grab Starlin Castro in round 3 or 4.  

 

So…in a 10 team league, someone with the #1 pick could conceivably go something like:

1.1 –  Kemp – OF

2.10 – Hanley – SS/3B

3.1 – Jered Weaver – SP

4.10 – Hosmer – 1B

5.1 – Brian McCann – C

 

Or possibly something along those lines….that's not too shabby assuming Hanley bounces back. Or you could with that 5.1 take a 3B or 2B option…or do something like:

1.1 Kemp OF

2.10 Hanley SS/3B

3.1 Kinsler 2B

4.10 Hosmer 1B

5.1 go with a pitcher or 3B option here…maybe a Cole Hamels or Pablo Sandoval/Brett Lawrie would be available.  That would cover your entire infield (outside of catcher) and give you the best outfielder (arguable – but with Braun missing 50 games, he's clearly #1 for at least this year). 

4 months ago
SwishesWishes
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I was definitely speaking in extremes giving the example of a Theriot type.

 

I basically feel that there is a ton of great depth at first base this year and the outfield is always packed during the draft and throughout the season. 

 

I would feel great if my first few rounds looked like this.  

1.1 Tulo SS

2.10 Hanley SS/3B

3.1 Kinsler 2B

4.10 Starting Pitcher

5.1 First Base or Outfield

 

I just feel like every season I don't have a solid SS, 3B, and 2B, I am panicing the whole season and rotating low tier players that go on a hot streak.

 

4 months ago
bobellis75
Lee's Summit MO
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I agree…those positions can be hard to fill and can definitely cause headaches all season if you don't draft right….

4 months ago
sickroy
North San Diego County, CA
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Yes, Yes and Yes! PS I took him #1 last year. He's at the begining of a HOF career plus he's a shortstop.

4 months ago
bobellis75
Lee's Summit MO
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While we are on the topic of Tulo, shortstops, and position scarcity….thought I'd share:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fanta…..ty-really/

3 months ago
Bones
Vancouver, WA.
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January 24, 2011
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10

As we approach March, I like this idea more and more….

2 months ago
Gus
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Cabrera hands down.  He'll be the best producing 3b in the MLB.  Don't get me wrong, I see the Tulo stratagy but I'm not passing up Cabrera because of it.

2 months ago
Bones
Vancouver, WA.
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January 24, 2011
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Hey Gus, everyone is SURE of Cabrera being the #1 third baseman.  But I'm not so sure.  The move to third could upset the big guy.  Plus, there is a fellow named Juan Bautista that has put up pretty good numbers the past 2 years.  I know Bautista still qualifies at 3B in yahoo leagues.  If that is universal, there could end up being an argument here.

Kind of fun that the #1 pick isn't a slam dunk anymore, like it has been the past few with Albert Pujols.

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